Le iperinflazioni in alcuni Paesi durante gli anni Venti (Germania, , Austria, Polonia, Ungheria. La Cecoslovacchia invece non mostrò tale iperinflazione.) hanno mostrato un’interruzione brusca con un cambio di regime fiscale.

Tutte queste sono caratterizzate da:

1. persistent budget deficit on current accounts.
2. l’adozione di misure fiscali e monetarie deliberate e drastiche
3. l’immediatezza con cui il livello dei prezzi e il tasso di cambio si sono stabilizzati
4. la rapida crescita in high powered offerta di moneta nei mesi seguenti alla stabilizzazione

 

Cosa fecero gli Stati? Per finanziare il deficit, presero a stampare moneta su moneta. Gli Stati Uniti, invece, erano ancorati al Gold Standard. La fine dell’iperinflazione coincise con l’ancoraggio della moneta al dollaro o all’oro.

Il governo, ancorandosi all’oro, emette moneta o titoli di debito promettendo la loro conversione in oro. Non è importante la misura delle riserve effettive. E’ importante che il governo promette di levare delle tasse che, dato il livello delle spese, garantiscano il pagamento del debito. Ciò che conta non è il livello attuale del debito, ma il valore atteso dei deficit presente e futuri e quindi della capacità di pagamento, come percepita dai creditori. (Compresi coloro che detengono la moneta, in termini di potere di acquisto?.)

 

The

value of the government’s debt was, to a first approximation, equal to the

present value of current and future government surpluses. So under a

gold standard, a government must honor its debts and could not engage in

inflationary finance. In order to assign a value to the government’s debt,

it was necessary to have a view about the fiscal policy regime in effect,

that is, the rule determining the government deficit as a function of the

state of the economy now and in the future. The public’s perception of the

fiscal regime influenced the value of government debt through private

agents’ expectations about the present value of the revenue streams

backing that debt.8

 

 

The

values of government expenditures and tax rates for one particular quarter

are examples of actions, while the rules, implicit or explicit, for

repeatedly selecting government expenditures and tax rates as functions

of the state of the economy are examples of regimes. Recent work in

dynamic macroeconomics has discovered the following general principle:

whenever there is a change in the government strategy or regime, private

economic agents can be expected to change their strategies or rules for

choosing consumption rates, investment rates, portfolios, and so on.10

The reason is that private agents’ behavior is selfish, or at least purposeful,

so that when the government switches its strategy, private agents

usually find it in their best interests to change theirs.

 

Dire che un cambio di regime tale da modificare i tassi d’interesse per calmierare l’inflazione porterebbe a un incremento enorme della disoccupazione non tiene conto che l’economia non è statica, ma dinamica e, al variare di un regime di politica economica o monetaria, cambiano i comportamenti degli agenti economici e le loro aspettative. Cambia tutto, insomma, e occorre studiare tutte le nuove correlazioni.

 

Quando la moneta si deprezza e i prezzi si alzano la gente cerca una moneta più forte, il governo vieta di possederla, cerca di controllare i capitali ecc. Così è stato ad esempio in Austria.

The estimate that a 1%

reduction in inflation would cost $220 billion GNP annually is one example

of such a faulty prediction. When an important change in regime occurs,

dynamic macroeconomics would predict that the entire pattern of correlations

among variables will change in quantitatively important ways.

 

(Anche se aumentavano la stampa di moneta e i deficit, il segnale era arrivato: moneta e prezzi si erano stabilizzati.)

The first protocol was a declaration signed by Great Britain, France,

Italy, Czechoslovakia, and Austria that reaffirmed the political independence

and sovereignty of Austria.18 The second protocol provided

conditions for an international loan of 650 million gold crowns to Austria.

The third protocol was signed by Austria alone and laid out a plan for

reconstruction of its fiscal and monetary affairs. The Austrian government

promised to establish a new independent central bank, to cease

running large deficits, and to bind itself not to finance deficits with

advances of notes from the central bank. Further, the government of

Austria agreed to accept in Austria a commissioner general, appointed by

the Council of the League, who was to be responsible for monitoring the

fulfillment of Austria’s commitments. The government of Austria also

agreed to furnish security to back the reconstruction loan. At the same

time, it was understood that the Reparation Commission would give up

or modify its claim on the resources of the government of Austria.

The government of Austria and the League both moved swiftly to

execute the plan outlined in the protocols. In legislation of 14 November

1922, the Austrian National Bank was formed to replace the old Austrian

section of the Austro-Hungarian bank; it was to take over the assets and

functions of the Devisenzentrale. The new bank began operations on 1

January 1923 and was specifically forbidden from lending to the government

except on the security of an equal amount of gold and foreign assets.

The bank was also required to cover its note issues with certain minimal

proportions of gold, foreign earning assets, and commercial bills. Further,

once the government’s debt to the bank had been reduced to 30

million gold crowns, the bank was obligated to resume convertibility into

gold.

The government moved to balance its budget by taking concrete steps

in several directions. Expenditures were reduced by discharging

thousands of government employees. Under the reconstruction scheme,

the government promised gradually to discharge a total of 100,000 state

employees. Deficits in government enterprises were reduced by raising

prices of government-sold goods and services. New taxes and more

efficient means of collecting tax and custom revenues were instituted.

The results of these measures can be seen by comparing the figures in

table A5 with those in table Al. Within two years the government was

able to balance the budget.

The stabilization of the Austrian crown was not achieved via a currency

reform. At the end of 1924 a new unit of currency was introduced, the

schilling, equal to 10,000 paper crowns.

 

Notare: impiegati statali furono licenziati, alle banche furono impediti prestiti non coperti da riserve in oro al governo, furono alzate le tasse, reso il sistema di riscossione più efficiente, furono alzati i prezzi dei prodotti delle imprese di stato.

 

The available figures on unemployment indicate that the stabilization

of the crown was attended by a substantial increase in the unemployment

rate, though unemployment had begun to climb well before stabilization

was achieved (see table A7). How much of this unemployment

was due to the achievement of currency stabilization and how much was

due to the real dislocations affecting the Austrian economy cannot be

determined. However, it is true that currency stabilization was achieved

in Austria very suddenly, and with a cost in increased unemployment and

foregone output that was minor compared with the $220 billion GNP that

some current analysts estimate would be lost in the United States per one

percentage point inflation reduction.

 

Anche in Ungheria fu necessaria l’indipendenza della banca centrale dal ministero delle finanze e il commissariamento esterno per stabilizzarsi. Prima emetteva banconote in massa, teneva i tassi bassi ecc. tagli di spese, rialzi di tasse, deficit sotto controllo anche lì. Anche lì incrementò la disoccupazione: Effetto avverso del processo di stabilizzazione

 

Per la Germania più che il debito “interno” furono rilevanti i danni di guerra imposti e i pagamenti ai lavoratori della rurh in sciopero sotto l’occupazione francese. Incise anche l’incertezza sui pagamenti dei danni: sarebbero stati pagati?Quando?Per quali importi? L’incertezza sul pagamento del debito futuro determina incertezza sul valore atteso della moneta…Poi c’erano ritardi nel pagamento delle tasse, anche perché la gente sapeva che in seguito il valore pagato sarebbe stato inferiore.

I tedeschi adottarono valute estere.

Poi lo stop. Nuova moneta e soprattutto obbligazione a emettere moneta in funzione della capacità di ripagare il debito (più o meno: l’ho capita così.     Ancora rialzi di tasse e abbattimenti di spese. Taglio degli impiegati statali del 25%. Prepensionamenti. Quelli a tempo determinato licenziati. In germania la stabilizzazione si accompagnò all’aumento della produzione e dell’occupazione. Ci furono comunque effetti negativi legati ad eccesso di investimenti.

 

La Cecoslovacchia introdusse da subito una politica monetaria e fiscale restrittiva e non incorse in problemi di iperinflazione al contrario dei suoi vicini.